
But of course the forecasts are only projections - little more than extrapolations of recent trends a long way into the future. I don't buy them: trying to call Ireland's demographic profile in 2060 is as challenging as forecasting today's population profile from way back in 1956. I doubt if the folks back then foresaw an Ireland with more native Polish and Mandarin Chinese speakers than fluent gaelgoirs. More to the point, even with a 50% increase in our population density we will still have one of the lowest densities in Europe.
What's more, the Eurostat projections assumes a further rise in immigration: over a third (36%) of the projected rise to 6.8 million is based on immigration (net) - exactly twice the projection for the EU27 as a whole (18%). Again, this is an economic projection more than a demographic one, and as Garret Fitzgerald points out in today's Irish Times, our own indigenous population growth will significantly reduce the need for immigration beyond 2030.
A far more pressing issue I suspect will be the growing demographic and economic imbalances at a regional level in Ireland. There you're talking politics, not just demographics.
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