Monday, December 8, 2008

Volatility Isn't What It Used To Be

The trend in the price of oil is quite extraordinary. The chart is from a fascinating post over at The Oil Drum which explores the link between the credit crunch and the oil price. As usual with The Oil Drum the comments (and links and charts) on the post are just as informative as the main article.

The speed and scale of change in the oil price is breath-taking: I think the history books will look back on the second half of 2008 as the time all the charts went crazy, and not just for the oil market. Truly we are experiencing an unprecedented degree of volatility in indices across the board. Volatility isn't what it used to be.

The bottom line is that the global peak in oil production has been postponed, perhaps by five years or longer depending on the depth and longevity of the recession (or, worse, depression). As numerous forecasters have noted: calling the peak in global oil production is as much a function of the global economy as of geology. In the short run, economics trumps geology: in the long run we have to remember that 'nature owns the stadium, and bats last'.

1 comment:

  1. "Nature owns the stadium, and bats last"

    Nice. I like that one :-)


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