
Taleb's core thesis in his books is that historical data (always partial and incomplete) is rarely able to prepare the user for extreme shocks in the future (fat tail events, as he calls them). Failure in human affairs is both inevitable and, often, beneficial. He makes the point in the podcast that capitalism is about failure. Figuring out what doesn't work (or what the market doesn't want) is as important a part of the free market mechanism as is figuring out what works and is successful. Which is why he is angry about the various attempts now being made to rescue failed banks around the world. They should be allowed to fail so that others will succeed, presumably by avoiding the mistakes of the failures. But that doesn't seem to be what is happening in Ireland or elsewhere. As Interfluidity puts it about the US (and similar) bank rescue package:
Of course the whole notion of repairing bank balance sheet is a lie and misdirection. The balance sheets we should want to see repaired are household balance sheets. Banks have failed us profoundly. We want them reorganized, not repaired. A world in which the banks are all fixed but households are still broken is worse than what we have right now. Too-big-to-fail banks restored to health are too-big-to-fail banks restored to power. The idea that fixing legacy banks is prerequisite to fixing the broad economy is a lie perpetrated by legacy bankers.Taleb's perspective is similar to that of Paul Ormerod, a former colleague, whose book - Why Most Things Fail - anticipates (because it predates) some of what Taleb has to say in The Black Swan. I've just finished reading it and would recommend it. One thing Ormerod points out in his book is that:
More than 10 per cent of all economically active firms in the US become extinct each year. It is a distinctive feature of firms, and any theory of the firm should attempt to explain it. Conventional economic theory can only do so by positing an endless supply of completely unexpected shocks, for otherwise the perfectly informed, rational decision-making firm could never die. It would live forever ...Ormerod also has some interesting things to say about the dangers of regulation in light of his analysis (as does Taleb in his interview: it was regulators who insisted on the use of 'value at risk' measures that misled market participants as to the true nature of the risks they were taking, or 'returnless risks' as he sarcastically puts it). Here's Ormerod:
To repeat a key phrase which needs to be hard-wired into the brain of every decision-maker, whether in the public or private sector, intent is not the same as outcome. Humans, whether acting as individuals or in a collective fashion in a firm or government, face massive inherent uncertainty about the effect of their actions.
Regulation that serves purely to intensify the internal degree of competition in a dynamic, evolving system can have adverse consequences for the system as a whole. As the degree of this kind of regulation increases, initially the adverse consequences are small, but beyond a critical level their impact grows rapidly. And with a high degree of such regulation, the fitness of the system begins to approach zero, at which level it risks total extinction.Wise words as we anticipate the handover of billions of taxpayers' euro to Irish banks to ensure their 'survival'. What if we end up ensuring the precise opposite? Fat tail anyone?
The Black Swan is an excellent book. Very well researched, very thought provoking and very well argued.
ReplyDeleteNassim Nicholas Taleb spoke at Davos this year, along with Nouriel Roubini which would have been a great talk to attend!
vh漫,成人漫畫,免費A片,色情網站,色情遊戲,情色文學,麗的色遊戲,色情,色情影片,同志色教館,色色網,色遊戲,自拍,本土自拍,kk俱樂部,後宮電影院,後宮電影,85cc免費影城,85cc免費影片,免費影片,免費小遊戲,免費遊戲,小遊戲,遊戲,好玩遊戲,好玩遊戲區,A片,情趣用品,遊戲區,史萊姆好玩遊戲,史萊姆,遊戲基地,線上遊戲,色情遊戲,遊戲口袋,我的遊戲口袋,小遊戲區,手機遊戲,貼圖,A片下載,成人影城,愛情公寓,情色貼圖,情色,色情網站,色情遊戲,色情小說,情色文學,色情,aio交友愛情館,色情影片,臺灣情色網,寄情築園小遊戲,情色論壇,嘟嘟情人色網,情色視訊,愛情小說,言情小說,一葉情貼圖片區,情趣用品,情趣,色情漫畫,情色網,情色a片,情色遊戲,85cc成人片,嘟嘟成人網,成人網站,18成人,成人影片,成人交友網,成人貼圖,成人圖片區,成人圖片,成人文章,成人小說,成人光碟,微風成人區,免費成人影片
ReplyDelete