Monday, February 28, 2011
A Venetian Future?
The Libyan crisis has engendered lots of fevered debate about Middle East oil supplies. As well it should. But I was intrigued by a recent report by BP called Energy Outlook 2030 which points out that OECD oil consumption peaked back in 2005, and by 2030 is expected to be back to the level last seen in 1990. And, coincidently, another study suggests that we may have reached Peak Travel in developed countries.
So we're in something of a race: efficiency gains and lifestyle changes are weakening the demand for oil, just as production peaks and fewer discoveries are weakening the supply of oil. Though BP assumes nevertheless a net increase in both supply and demand to 2030. I hope they are right: otherwise Venetian modes of transport may become a lot more common - and trips to Venice a lot less so.