Thursday, November 17, 2011

Runaway Train

Here's a great quote from Golem XIV (who sees Credit Crunch 2 gathering pace already):
Like a train sliding backwards over a precipice, as each carriage goes over so the weight pulling down grows and the weight resisting decreases. And the engine at the front, the ECB/Germany has to think can I still pull all this back up or should I cut the coupling and save myself at least.
For those who prefer percentages, here's a handy chart from Zero Hedge:


That works out at a 25% chance Ireland will have to do an 'Argentina' (I had guessed 20% in correspondence with an anxious friend abroad wondering what to do with his savings in an Irish bank - let's just say they're not there now...)

Brian Lucy has started a handy discussion about Ireland's post-euro economy, likewise Nama Winelake envisages the introduction of the Punt Nua.

As for how it went for Argentina, Peter Day's recent podcast took a look at Argentina ten years on from its devaluation and break with the dollar. The message: it only works if you have a balanced budget and a strong export sector. Argentina had both going into devaluation (and taxes from the latter helped offset pressure on the former). We've got the exports but not the balanced budget.

So it's going to hurt if Germany cuts the coupling...


2 comments:

  1. I assume monetization of debt by the ECB translates as Print, baby, print?

    ReplyDelete
  2. Fantastic analysis from the Golem blog. Once you can see this as simply another subprime crisis that the banks have sleepwalked us into, yet again, then it all becomes very clear. Thanks for this.

    ReplyDelete

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