Monday, July 25, 2016

Trumpenslide

The election is now between the borderline personality Mommy and the arch-narcissist Daddy for the hearts and minds of a public sore beset by the initial spasms of economic and cultural collapse. James Howard Kunstler

And Daddy's going to win. Just over three months out from polling day on 8th November and I reckon Trump is on his way to a landslide. The latest CNN poll shows him ahead, but more than that it shows he's got momentum. On just about every measure in the survey, Clinton's numbers are going the wrong way, Trump's are going the right way. 

We can also see the same polarisation evident before Brexit: men are leaning strongly Trump, women are leaning strongly Clinton, and it's the same story for whites vs blacks, older vs younger, poorer vs richer:


A standout statistic for me from the poll is the percent of US voters who think each candidate is "running for president for the good of the country, not for personal gain". The percent for Clinton? 44%. The percent for Trump? 52%. Trump's number is rising, Clinton's is falling.

Clinton will get a boost from the Democratic Convention this week (though Kunstler's not so sure). But unless Trump goes full Nazi then I think he has it in the bag.

Just a pity Enda didn't have that round of golf with Trump when he last offered to visit us. Oh well, maybe his successor will be more welcoming to President Trump.




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