"People who think their own opinions make them virtuous have the most closed minds of all." Peter Hitchens (in a despondent mood)That's three out of three so far this year for me: I forecast there would be no Fianna Fail/Fine Gael coalition government; that the British would vote Leave; and that Donald Trump would be the next President of the United States (back in July as it happens). Only wish I'd placed an accumulator bet with Paddy Power...
So how did I do it? Was it some kind of Nate-Silveresque algorithm (though his own blew up alongside every other major pollster)? Or maybe I had my own private polls? Nope. My secret was (is) to try and see things as they are, not as I would like them to be. I know: not terribly special. In fact, as talents go it's one that was remarkably common when I was growing up. Though not so much these days it seems.
How did we end up in this state? One in which the mass media (or should that be the 'media en masse') has ended up a sad little echo chamber, virtue signalling its liberal credentials to one another even as, you know, reality moves on. Whose on the wrong side of history now?
What we have witnessed in 2016 is the acceleration of a phenomenon that has been gathering pace in recent decades. That phenomenon is the closing of the liberal, progressive, leftist mind, to the point that it no longer sees things as they are but only as they would like them to be. And despite their perennial rebellion they have failed to notice that THEY ARE THE ESTABLISHMENT; THE MAN; THE SYSTEM. And so they simply cannot comprehend it when the People reject the establishment by rejecting THEM.
Not all leftists have lost touch with reality, however. Michael Moore - a reluctant Hillary supporter - intuited that Trump's election would be 'the biggest 'f**k you message ever recorded in human history'. And if you haven't seen the video, go see it now: it's right up there with Al Pacino's 'one more inch' pep talk in Any Given Sunday. I knew in my head Trump would win back in July, I knew in my heart he would win when I saw that video just a few weeks ago.
There's a bigger problem. I call it 'the closing of the Liberal mind'. Alastair Roberts calls it Liberal Obliviousness. Here he is on the liberal/progressive outlook during the election:
The troubling thing is the frequent unwillingness to attempt to believe better of their fellow Americans, to explore the possibility that perhaps many Trump voters are intelligent, well-meaning, and, yes, fearful people just like themselves, people who are actually opposed to misogyny and racism and only voted for Trump because they believed there was no other choice. The fact that such liberals seem to find it more reassuring to believe that an overwhelming multitude of their compatriots are irredeemably hateful and evil than it is for them to believe that a well-meaning and intelligent person might support an opposing candidate is immensely revealing. Perhaps it suggests that such people have more of an existential stake in the cocoons of ideological communities than they do in the world of social reality.He continues:
While they flatter themselves that they are compassionate and open—they are standing for love!—their vicious vengefulness and hostility towards people, or the way that they sacrifice even the closest relationships on the altar of political and ideological differences, is truly terrifying. The other side isn’t just driven by different yet valid group concerns, or well-meaning but mistaken, or even compromised yet open to moral suasion. No, for so many they are evil and beyond redemption, a group that cannot be won over by reason, service, or love but can only be eradicated.Do read the whole thing.
What to do about it? How do we create a common dialogue based in reality rather than on psychological projection? Here in Ireland as well? Maybe it's self-correcting, a healthy backlash against Politically Correct doctrine that returns us to something more 'liberal' with a small 'l'. Successfully navigated such a turn might create a more 'inclusive' society, one which tolerates diversity of thought, not just diversity of religion, race or sexual orientation. We'll see. Like Bruce Charlton, I am filled 'with both hope and a dash of optimism' as we approach the end of 2016.
Though you'll have to wait a while longer for my 2017 forecasts.